Taking Your Chances on the Enrollment Trends Wheel of Fortune Or “And the Lucky Number Is…!”
By Kevin O’Connor
Every community college administrator knows what it’s like to take spin on the enrollment wheel of 
fortune. The unpredictability of enrollments hits everyone at a community college. For students, there’s the perennial worry that a much-needed class will be closed, canceled, or left unscheduled. For the faculty, especially part-timers, the threat of losing a course due to low enrollments looms.
Several questions face administrators at the start of each year. Where will enrollments go next semester or next year? What’s the best schedule to meet instructional needs? Will I have the right resources, both facilities and person-power, to address student demand? Presently, we wonder how the reduced enrollment fees in spring 2007 will impact us, as well as the changing employment and business environment.
In our efforts to answer these questions and manage enrollments in predictive, efficient, and sensitive ways, administrators embrace a variety of strategies, behaviors, and technologies. We brand our colleges as a marketing tactic, we advertise, we plan, we research, and we worry.
In the last three fall semesters (2003, 2004, 2005), community colleges in California have experienced a general enrollment decline from fall 2002 numbers. However, a brief history of community college enrollments over the last 10 years shows that until recently the Golden State enjoyed golden enrollments:
Unduplicated Total Headcount Statewide
Fall 1995 1,336,295
Fall 1996 1,407,576
Fall 1997 1,415,665
Fall 1998 1,494,890
Fall 1999 1,548,036
Fall 2000 1,585,350
Fall 2001 1,686,963
Fall 2002 1,748,361
Fall 2003 1,634,550
Fall 2004 1,606,100
Fall 2005 1,606,858
Source: Chancellor’s Office, Management Information Services
Despite the declining headcount of the last three years, our system enrollment has shown a steady increase:
Statewide
FTES California Residents Credit Noncredit Total
1998-99 874,979 86,070 961,049
1999-00 906,382 91,915 998,297
2000-01 944,520 97,309 1,041,829
2001-02 994,504 104,672 1,099,176
2002-03 1,030,048 99,596 1,129,644
2003-04 1,012,605 93,785 1,106,390
2004-05 1,121,681 38,341 1,160,022
Source: Chancellor’s Office, Management Information Services
Our colleges have managed a declining headcount scenario these last several years while increasing full-time equivalent students (FTES). This speaks well for our collective skills in enrollment management. But how will we fare over the next few years? We anticipate that the reduced student fees taking effect in spring 2007 will have the opposite effect of the two recent fee hikes, the first in fall 2003 and the second in fall 2004, and encourage greater enrollments. And then there are the signs of a weakening housing market and economy, which typically translate into higher enrollments.
But perhaps one of the best sources to look at when predicting enrollment trends is the work done by the Research and Planning Group for California Community Colleges. Their 2005 study, “A Summary of Key Issues Facing California Community Colleges,” identifies six factors they believe will influence our campuses, our planning, and our enrollments:
1. If the system is to add some 478,000+ students by 2013, operational and capital funding needs must be realistically evaluated by the state and stabilized to support this growth, giving consideration to regional variation in terms of general growth and special student needs. Current funding mechanisms result in unstable budgets at the district level. A look at equity of funding across different systems and states reveals that California Community Colleges (CCC) are drastically under-funded when compared to peers in other states, to K-12 and to four-year public institutions of higher education.
2. Studies show that the lack of resources and preparation at the K-12 level have serious implications for higher education in general, but particularly for community colleges, who are on the front line of serving under-prepared students. Lagging K-12 performance, lack of college readiness and growing numbers of high school dropouts will increase attention on community college access, basic skills offerings, and workforce preparation.
3. Community colleges will be challenged to serve the growing numbers of traditionally underrepresented minority students, many of whom are considered to be at a higher risk of not completing their programs of study. As recently as 2003, 40% of CCC freshmen were from these groups, compared to 31% at CSU and 19% at UC.
4. More than one out of every three students in CCC enrolls in a basic skills class, and the proportion of students enrolling is ever-increasing. Basic skills students traditionally require high levels of student support services. There is likely to be a need for increased support services and for alternative approaches to basic skill education to further enhance student success.
5. A set of perennial weaknesses plague California education and inhibit responsiveness and reform: weak linkages across education sectors, from public schools to community colleges and universities; little incentive for collaboration across sectors; and, at all levels, few incentives and little accountability for local and regional collaboration among educational institutions. The CCC needs to focus attention on building such collaborative partnerships. Intersegmental partnerships should be a top priority for the system, with particular attention to preparation of secondary school students for college-level coursework.
6. The analytical capacity of the system office is important to providing the infrastructure for data analysis that will diagnose the critical community college needs of the state. The system will need to find ways to assure that research will occur in both the near and distant future.
If one looks at each of the preceding six items, a number of them might seem out of our sphere of influence or control, but perhaps not. The November ballot contains a facilities measure Proposition 1D that could provide the dollars our system needs to meet our current and future building requirements. Increased workforce preparation monies are now in our budgets. A basic skills cash infusion arrived at each campus this fall. And non-credit instruction is receiving the attention it needs as reflected in its reimbursement rate.
While predicting enrollments will always embrace a decidedly non-scientific, intuitive side, it’s clear for us in the community college system that we have data, software, and planning to take out much of the guesswork. And, as many who have lived through the ups and downs of enrollment in the past are aware, we must rely on the talented people and considerable know-how at each of our campuses to assist us when the unpredicted inevitably arrives at our front doors.
Kevin O’Connor is the dean of Liberal Arts and Learning Resources at Saddleback College.
